Analyzing the September Consumer Confidence Index: Trends, Concerns, and Outlook
Consumer confidence took a hit in September as the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dropped to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell to 125.4, while the Expectations Index, based on short-term income, business, and labor market outlook, decreased to 73.4. Expectations have been below the recession threshold of 80 since February 2025. The decline in confidence was attributed to a negative assessment of business conditions and job availability, although optimism about future income increased slightly.
Demographic trends showed a rise in confidence among consumers under 35 but a decline among those over 35. Income groups displayed mixed confidence levels, with no clear pattern. Confidence remained above the April low for most income cohorts except for those earning between $25K and $35K and above $200K. Partisan affiliation also played a role, with confidence improving slightly among Republicans and Democrats but dropping significantly among Independents.
Consumer write-in responses highlighted concerns about prices and inflation, with references to tariffs decreasing but still causing worries about higher prices. Inflation expectations slightly decreased to 5.8% in September. Job-related mentions in consumer responses reached a level unseen since August 2024, mostly reflecting negative sentiments about the current job market.
Consumers' outlook on stock prices improved slightly, with a consistent share expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months. Expectations for interest rates remained stable, with a slight decrease in those anticipating rate hikes. Views on family finances and recession risk weakened in September, with more consumers considering a recession likely in the next 12 months.
Purchasing plans for cars declined, while intentions to buy homes increased. Big-ticket item purchase intentions varied across appliance types, with a rise in electronics purchases but a decline in travel-related services. Overall, consumers' assessment of current business conditions worsened, and their outlook on future business conditions and income prospects was mixed. The Consumer Confidence Survey® conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board provided insights into consumer sentiment, reflecting the challenges and uncertainties in the economic landscape.